UFC 307 goes down in Salt Lake City this Saturday and promises some mouthwatering action. UFC betting expert and national judo champion Tommi Valtonen goes through his top picks for UFC 307 in this article. Earlier this week Tommi went 4/5 for picks and 2/3 for DWCS Week 8 so he’s on a roll. Here’s what we’re going with for Alex Pereira vs Khalil Rountree Jr,
UFC 307 Picks
Below are my pick’s for UFC 307. While this fight card promises some good action especially in the main event, choosing winners is tricky here, which you can see reflected in the confidence level of these bets. While there are some good winner bets with decent odds, we will focus our best bets on method of finish
| Fight | Pick | Confidence Level |
|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira (-485) vs Khalil Rountree Jr. (+370) | Alex Pereira | Medium |
| Raquel Pennington (-170) vs Julianna Pe?a (+142) | Raquel Pennington | High |
| José Aldo (+124) vs Mario Bautista (-148) | Jose Aldo | Medium High |
| Roman Dolidze (+136) vs Kevin Holland (-162) | Roman Dolidze | Medium High |
| Ketlen Vieira (+600) vs Kayla Harrison (-900) | Kayla Harrison | High |
| Stephen Thompson (+170) vs Joaquin Buckley (-205) | Stephen Thompson | Medium |
| Marina Rodriguez (+142) vs Iasmin Lucindo (-170) | Iasmin Lucindo | Medium |
| Austin Hubbard vs Alexander Hernandez | Alexander Hernandez | Low |
| Cesar Almeida (-395) vs Ihor Potieria (+310) | Cesar Almeida | Low |
| Ryan Spann (-278) vs Ovince Saint Preux (+225) | Ryan Spann | High |
| Carla Esparza vs Tecia Pennington | Carla Esparza | Low |
| Court McGee (+170) vs Tim Means (-205) | Tim Means | Medium |
Best Bets UFC 307
Even though we don’t have too many good moneyline odds for UFC 307, we still have a couple of good bets in both the main event and the co-main event, as well as couple of underdogs and method of victory bets.
| Bet Type | Bet | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Best Bet UFC 307 | Harrison by Submission | +275 |
| Main Event | Over 1.5 Rounds | -125 |
| Co-Main Event | Pennington ML | -170 |
| Best Underdog | Aldo ML | +124 |
| Underdog 2* | Dolidlze ML | +136 |
| Method of Victory* | Dolidze KO/TKO / Holland by Dec +175 | +800 |
*Only bet after the weigh-in
Pereira vs Rountree Main Event Prediction
Alex Pereira is a huge favorite at most US betting sites in this fight and I would say he’s even too big of a favorite. Yes, sure Pereira is likely to win, but coming off of a PEDs ban and having a great record against kickboxers, bettors shouldn’t count out Rountree. For example Chael Sonnen has caused some controversy with constant claims that Rountree will knock out Pereira.
Now while Uncle Chael is known for his controversial and often wrong opinions that he shares for social media clicks, he might not be completely off here. Rountree has proved himself especially against kickboxers and is a very dangerous counter-striker. However, the level of Pereira is something else. Therefore, we suggest staying away from betting on the ML here.
Instead what we’re looking at here is over 1.5 rounds at -125. Now I know Pereira’s record and the knockout power this man posesses, but we need to take into account Rountree’s fighting style. Unlike fighters like Jamalah Hill or Adesanay, Rountree doesn’t move back when he fights. And when does Pereira catch you, when you’re on the backfoot. Therefore, we’re banking on Rountree Jr. keeping his cool for at least 7 and a half minutes. At -125 for a 5 round fight, this is the best odds.
Co-Main Event
In the co-main event Raquel Pennington and Julianna Pena, we have one of our top moneyline picks in Raquel Pennington. The fact is that Pena is 35 years and has had 1 fight in 2 years. While Pennington is 36 and hasn’t been much more active, we don’t see her having any problems with Pena for a couple of reasons.
The only way I see Pena winning is by submission. However, her takedown accuracy is 55% compared to Pennington’s 89% takedown defence, which doesn’t bode well for Pena, especially given that Pennington’s takedown defense has improved over time.
Given that Pennington throws much more than Pena, this just makes matters worse for Pena. If I’m being honest, I foresee an extremely boring fight here, but one that Pennington should comfortably win by decision. However, the odds for fight to go the distance are very low.
Best Underdog: Jose Aldo ML
The King of Rio is back and as a +124 underdog which I feel is disrespectful. While I might have my nostalgia goggles on, I think Jose should be at least even money here.
Aldo’s last outing against the hot prospect Jonathan Martinez was a dominant performance where the Brazilian showed off great volume in beating a figher much younger than himself. To win against Aldo, the American Bautista would need to take him down. While Bautista is a BJJ black belt, not even Dvalishvili could take Aldo down at this weight.
On the feet, the American can’t match the output or the accuracy. Therefore, he would need to win at least 2 rounds by takedowns and I really don’t see that happening. He might take one round, but taking Aldo down in two rounds while Dvalishvili couldn’t do it, I don’t see that happening.
Underdog 2: Roman Dolidze ML
In what promises to be an absolute slugfest, the Trailblazer Kevin Holland takes on the Georgian Rocket Roman Dolidze. The biggest question in this fight is Dolidze’s weight as he went up a weight to beat Anthony Smith in Light Heavyweight. The Georgian power bomber is big, much bigger than Holland and if he makes the weight it’s extremely hard to see Holland taking this one.
Now on the other hand, this is a slightly risky play before we know the results of the weigh-in. If Dolidze makes weight confortably, he should likely knock Holland out. The Trailblazer has admitted that his weakness is wrestling and that’s the only way we see him taking this one. This one isn’t going the distance and Holland isn’t the one who is knocking a fully recovered Dolidze out.
If the Georgian struggles in the weight-in, we’d suggest taking Holland by decision though.
Method of Victory Bet: Kayla Harrison by Submission
We’ve saved the best for last with Kayla Harrison by submission at +275. These are ridiculous odds and betting apps are clearly misjudging the levels of Judo and BJJ at play here. Even though Vieira is a judo and bjj blackbelt, Harrison is a double olympic champion and head and shoulders above the Brazilian.
This fight will go to the ground when and how Harrison decides and Vieira can’t stop it. She is weaker and fighting against one of the best judoka ever. The question is only if Harrison can submit her, and the answer is resounding yes. Will it happen as easy as against Holly Holm for example? Likely no, but after the American has had two rounds of ground and pound, she’ll find the submission in the 3rd at the latest.
