Dana White’s Contender Series: Season 8, Week 8 is et to take place on October 1st at the UFC APEX, Las Vegas, NV. We’re closing in on the season finale with just 5 fights left for this weeks DWC. Here are our top picks for DWCS week 8.
Best DWCS Week 8 Picks
DWCS 8 sees some very uneven matchups mixed up with a couple of explosive MMA bouts. However, there are not many good bets as the betting sites have this one nailed down pretty correctly. Here are our top picks for DWCS season 8 week 8:
| Bet | Best Odds | Sportsbook |
|---|---|---|
| Montes vs Calderon Over 1.5 | -115 | Hard Rock Bet |
| Franklin ML | +150 | BetMGM Sportsbook |
| Finne vs El Ramy Under 1.5 | +130 | ESPN Bet |
Diyar Nurgozhay (9-0-0) vs. Bartosz Szewczyk (8-2-1) Pick & Prediction
| Fighter | Diyar Nurgozhay | Bartosz Szewczyk |
|---|---|---|
| Height | 6 ft 2 | 6 ft 4 |
| Weight | 205 lbs | 205 lbs |
| Age | 27 | 27 |
| Reach | 74 | 73 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
Nurgozhay and Sweczyck will go head to head in a very evenly matched fight with odds ranging for -110 even to -130 for the Kazakh fighter. To us this fight is a coin toss. Nurgozhay is undefeated, but the caliber at Szewczyk is different from his previous opponents. Both are good strikers, but the Pole has 2 inch reach advantage which could become decisive. Gun to our head we predict that Nurgozhay will take the fight, but it’s very even.
As for betting predictions, the over under is set at -170 for over 1.5 rounds and we feel that this is accurate. These are two highly technical strikers, not brawlers and this one should go to the scorecards. However, at -170 and at light heavyweight, that’s a dangerous bet to make. Our official advice: skip this fight!
- Pick: Nurgozhay ML
- Best Bet:: Skip
Alberto Montes (9-1-0) vs. Carlos Calderon (6-2-0) Pick & Prediction
| Fighter | Alberto Montes | Carlos Calderon |
|---|---|---|
| Height | 5 ft 7 | 5 ft 11 |
| Weight | 145 lbs | 145 lbs |
| Age | 30 | 28 |
| Reach | 69 | 71 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
Montes is a big favorite in this fight with odds as low as -340. We are very confident in the Venezuelan to get this done, but don’t think there’s much money to be made with such short odds. However, the over under is more interesting, as we have over 1.5 rounds at -120.
The 145 pound category is not known for producing a high KO rate. While fighters such as Conor Mcgregor have definitely had their share of knocouts the fights tend to take longer at this weight, especially between strikers. Now we know both of these figthers are submission specialists, but their grappling skills are fairly equal, so in the end it’s likely to be down to who punches better or who manages to gain the advantage for 2 rounds with takedowns. As of now, we don’t see a submission here very early. Therefore, over 1.5 rounds at -120 is an excellent bet.
- Our Pick: Montes ML
- Best Bet: Over 1.5 @-120
David Martinez (10-1-0) vs. Xavier Franklin (5-0-0) Pick & Prediction
| Fighter | David Martinez | Xavier Franklin |
|---|---|---|
| Height | 5 ft 6 | 5 ft 6 |
| Weight | 135 lbs | 135 lbs |
| Age | 26 | 28 |
| Reach | 66 | 66 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Southpaw |
Martinez is a fair favorite here at odds of -165. However, Franklin is a more complete fighter. To make matters worse, Martinez is a cardio machine, who has gone 5 rounds in his last 2. Franklin has gone 5 rounds in one of his past 2 as well, so a 3 round fight for both is not something they’ve experienced lately. While the odds favor Martinez, we feel like there could be an upset here and would recommend Franklin ML for those looking to bet this fight, even though it might be better to avoid this matchup alltogether as it’s very much a coin toss.
As for the over under, the odds are just too bad with the over 1.5 rounds set at -270. The fight is likely to go to distance, but at DWCS you never know so we wouldn’t touch the total.
- Our Pick: Franklin ML
- Best Bet: Franklin ML @+125
Torrez Finney (9-0-0) vs. Abdellah Er-Ramy (7-1-0) Pick & Prediction
| Fighter | Torrez Finney | Abdellah Er-Ramy |
|---|---|---|
| Height | 5 ft 8 | 6 ft 0 |
| Weight | 185 lbs | 185 lbs |
| Age | 25 | 28 |
| Reach | 75.5 | 74 |
| Stance | Orthodox | Orthodox |
Finney is a heavy favorite for this fight between -238 and -270 at most US betting apps. The over/under line suggests that the fight should go at least 1.5 rounds with the under at +130 and over at -170. Howevr, while we agree with the oddsmakers for the winner, we feel there’s a higher chance for under 1.5 rounds than the implied probability 43%.
Finney’s average fight time in his last five is 8 minutes and 39 seconds whereas it’s 4 minutes and 49 seconds for Er-Ramy. This suggests that these fighters are not going to wait around. While both fighters might be cagey considering the pedigree of their opponent, the knockout power both of them possess should bring this fight to a halt before the halfway point of second round more than 50% of the time.
- Our Pick: Finney ML
- Best Bet:: Under 1.5 rounds at @+130
Jacobe Smith (8-0-0) vs. Christien Savoie (10-1-1) Pick & Prediction
| Fighter | Jacobe Smith | Christien Savoie |
|---|---|---|
| Height | 6 ft 2 | 5 ft 11 |
| Weight | 170 lbs | 170 lbs |
| Age | 28 | 32 |
| Reach | 72 | 72 |
| Stance | Southpaw | Orthodox |
Smith is a ridiculous -1100 favorite here and it’s really hard to see him losing this fight. If we’re being honest, there are no great bets here. Smith is likely to win and take his time doing it. However, the over under is set at over 1.5 and -170 which is accurate. If you are desperate to bet, take the over, but there’s no real value there with the skill level of these fighters.
- Our Pick: Smith ML
- Best Bet: Don’t Bet
Where to Watch DWCS Season 8 Week 8
DWCS is currently exclusive to ESPN+. The show start on 08:00 PM ET.
