The Atlanta Falcons host the Tampa Bay Bucs on Thursday Night Football to kick off Week 5. Some of the best TNF player props from NFL betting sites for the Bucs vs. Falcons game feature Baker Mayfield, Kirk Cousins, Chris Godwin, and Bucky Irving.
The Falcons (2-2) are a slight favorite at -2.5 against the Bucs (3-1), and the points total is 43.5 over/under in this AFC South divisional showdown. The Bucs are one of the top betting teams in the NFL with a 3-1 ATS record, while the Falcons struggle to cover the point spread with a 1-3 ATS record.
The Bucs average 24.3 points per game, which is tied for #10 in the NFL. Their defense allows 19.5 points per game. The Falcons generate only 18.8 points of offense per game, and their defense allows 21.3 points per game. The Bucs have a 2-2 record at hitting the over, but the Falcons are only 1-3 in overs.
Best Bucs vs. Falcons Player Props: TNF Touchdown Props
The Falcons scored seven touchdowns in four games, but only five were from offensive players. In Week 4, their special teams scored a touchdown on a muffed punt, and linebacker Troy Anderson scored on a pick-six interception.
Wide receiver Drake London is the only member of the Falcons with multiple touchdowns. Running back Bijan Robinson scored only one rushing touchdown this season, much to the disappointment of fantasy football owners.
Robinson is a co-favorite to score the first TD at +475 odds, and he’s also the outright favorite to score an anytime TD at -125 odds. Robinson is due for a big game, but -125 is too chalky for our tastes. He’s nursing a shoulder injury, and we’re always cautious to back player props involving banged-up players on a short week with minimal recovery.
| PLAYER | FIRST TD | ANYTIME TD | 2+ TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | +475 | -125 | +500 |
| Mike Evans | +475 | +115 | +850 |
| Drake London | +850 | +155 | +1200 |
| Bucky Irving | +900 | +155 | +1200 |
| Chris Godwin | +950 | +155 | +1200 |
| Rachaad White | +1000 | +180 | +1400 |
| Darnell Mooney | +1200 | +230 | +2200 |
Bucs quarterback Baker Mayfield tossed eight touchdowns this season, including three to Mike Evans and three to Chris Godwin. Evans is the other co-favorite to score the first touchdown of the game at +475 odds, but he’s listed as questionable on the injury report. He missed practice this week with a sore knee and calf.
We like Godwin as a long shot to score the first touchdown at +950 odds, and +155 odds to score an anytime touchdown. If Evans is out, we also like Godwin’s chances to score multiple touchdowns at +1200 odds.
The Falcons allow 145 rushing yards per game, which is eighth worst in the NFL. Rookie Bucky Irving is getting more touches than Rachaad White, which is why we like Irving to score an anytime touchdown at +155 odds.
Bucs vs. Falcons Passing Props
Kirk Cousins has been steadily improving with each game for the Falcons, which is remarkable considering he returned less than a year after a season-ending Achilles injury. Cousins completed 64.7% of his passes, but he threw four touchdowns and four interceptions.
If you ignore a rusty performance in the season opener, Cousins tossed only two interceptions over the last three games. He averaged 236.3 passing yards and 20.3 completions in that span. We like Cousins to pass over 236.5 yards, but under 1.5 touchdowns on TNF.
| QUARTERBACK | PASSING PROP | OVER ODDS | UNDER ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Baker Mayfield | 240.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Baker Mayfield | 1.5 TDs O/U | -105 | -125 |
| Kirk Cousins | 226.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1.5 TDs O/U | 110 | -145 |
Mayfield completed 70.5% of his passes for eight touchdowns and two interceptions, but he’s been sacked 15 times in four games this season. Mayfield surprisingly leads the Bucs with two rushing touchdowns.
Mayfield threw four touchdowns in the season opener against the Washington Commanders. He then tossed two more and rushed for another score against the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 4. We like Mayfield to exceed 1.5 passing touchdowns at -105 odds. He’s also +400 odds at US betting apps to throw three or more if you want to take a flier on an “escalator” prop bet.
Bucs vs. Falcons Rushing Props
If the Bucs jump out to a big lead, the Falcons will ditch their running game and try to trim their deficit with Cousins’ passing attack. Considering Robinson’s sore shoulder and an uptick in backup running back Tyler Allgeier’s touches, we like Robinson to rush under 68.5 yards.
| RUNNING BACK | RUSHING PROP | OVER ODDS | UNDER ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bijan Robinson | 68.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Bucky Irving | 38.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Rachaad White | 33.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
The Bucs utilize a running back by committee, but Bucky Irving’s usage rate has been increasing with each game. An efficient Irving averages 5.8 yards per carry with 203 rushing yards on 35 attempts, which is impressive for a rookie. Irving rushed for 70 yards in Week 3 and added 49 yards and a touchdown in Week 4. We like Irving to hit his over with more than 38.5 rushing yards.
Rachaad White has more rushes than Irving, yet White has only 115 yards on 41 attempts for a paltry 2.8 yards per carry. White is coming off his best rushing performance of the season in Week 4 with 49 yards on 10 carries. In the previous two games, he rushed for only 35 total yards.
White is more valuable in the Bucs’ passing game and he tallied more receiving yards than rushing yards in four games this season. He’s tied for third on the team with 14 catches. We like White to rush under 33.5 yards on TNF, but we also like him to accumulate more than 25+ receiving yards at +125 odds which is available on various betting sites.
Bucs vs. Falcons Receiving Props
Drake London leads the Falcons in receptions (20), targets (31), and touchdowns (2). He’s second on the team with 200 receiving yards. He tallied 67 yards in Week 3 and 64 yards in Week 4 for his two best performances of the season. London’s current total of 64.5 receiving yards is on the high side, which is why we’re eyeing the under.
| WIDE RECEIVER | RECEIVING PROP | OVER ODDS | UNDER ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Godwin | 66.5 Yards O/U | -110 | -120 |
| Drake London | 64.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Mike Evans | 62.5 Yards O/U | -110 | -115 |
Chris Godwin leads the Bucs with 27 receptions and 34 targets, and he has a team-high
322 receiving yards. Mike Evans added 18 receptions on 29 targets for 214 yards. Even if Evans plays on TNF, we’re targeting multiple player props for Godwin. We like him to hit the over 66.5 in receiving yards. He’s also +330 odds to catch more than 100 yards.
TNF Kicking Player Props
Let’s not forget about the kickers! With the Falcons struggling to score offensive touchdowns, Younghoe Koo is a valuable member of their special teams and he helped the Falcons defeat the New Orleans Saints with clutch kicking.
Koo is also perfect this season and has not missed a kick. He converted 6-for-6 on extra points, and he’s 9-for-9 on field goals including 3-for-3 from 50-plus yards.
| KICKER | PLAYER PROP | OVER ODDS | UNDER ODDS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Younghoe Koo | 7.5 Points O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Younghoe Koo | 1.5 FGs O/U | -140 | 110 |
Koo is coming off a 14-point performance against the Saints in Week 4 with four field goals and two extra points. He also posted 10 points in Week 2 with three field goals and an extra point. We like Koo to exceed his point total of 7.5 o/u on TNF. We also like him to kick over 1.5 field goals at -140 odds.
