Best College Football Picks Against the Spread Week 5

Here are the top Week 5 college football picks against the spread.

#1 Texas (4-0) vs Mississippi State (1-3)

Betting Line: Texas -38.5, Total 62.5
Pick: Texas -38.5
Arch Manning looked marvelous when he came off the bench to replace a banged-up Quinn Ewers against UTSA. Manning threw four touchdowns and rushed for another.
Ewers has an oblique strain and is listed as questionable. Texas has a bye next week, so it makes sense to keep Ewers out of the lineup, allowing him two extra weeks of rest before they face Oklahoma and Georgia in mid-October.
Texas has had a soft schedule start, apart from Michigan, securing easy wins against Colorado State, UTSA, and UL Monroe. Their defense is ranked #1 in the country, allowing only 22 total points (5.5 ppg).
Even if Texas (4-0 ATS) jumps to a 30-plus point lead, they won’t ease up against Mississippi State (1-3 ATS). This might be Manning’s last start before Ewers returns, so he’ll aim to pad his stats.

#2 Georgia (3-0) at #4 Alabama (3-0)

Betting Line: Georgia -2.5, Total 48.5 o/u
Pick: Alabama +2.5
Two giants from the SEC square off in a Top 4 matchup. Georgia aims to regain the #1 spot, currently held by Texas.
Alabama QB Jalen Milroe has eight TDs with no interceptions and six rushing touchdowns, currently +700 odds to win the Heisman Trophy.
For the first time since 2007, Alabama is a home underdog against Georgia, making this a rare opportunity to back Bama as a home dog.

#3 Ohio State (3-0) at Michigan State (3-1)

Betting Line: Ohio State -24.5, Total 48.5 o/u
Pick: Michigan State +24.5
Ohio State has the third-best offense, averaging 52.3 ppg, and their defense is ranked #4 in the country, allowing 6.7 points per game. Despite their convincing wins, Ohio State has failed to cover in two games this season.
Michigan State (1-2-1 ATS) covered only once. Winning road games in the Big Ten is difficult enough, but covering more than three touchdowns is also extremely challenging. Ohio State is undefeated but only 1-2 ATS.

Kentucky (2-2) at #6 Ole Miss (4-0)

Betting Line: Ole Miss -17.5, Total 52.5 o/u
Pick: Kentucky +17.5
Ole Miss QB Jaxson Dart leads the nation with 1,554 passing yards and has completed nearly 80% of his passes with 12 touchdowns. However, they face a Top 15 defense as Kentucky allows only 12.5 ppg.
Ole Miss has padded its schedule with easy opponents, including a 76-0 win against Furman. Kentucky lacks offensive firepower but has a strong enough defense to keep the game close.

#8 Oregon (3-0) at UCLA (1-2)

Betting Line: Oregon -24.5, Total 55.5 o/u
Pick: Oregon -24.5
Oregon and UCLA face off in their first Big Ten conference game. Oregon’s efficient QB Dillon Gabriel completed 84% of his passes for six touchdowns, leading Oregon to a 3-0 record.
UCLA’s defense allows nearly 30 ppg, and their offense struggles to score 15 ppg. It’s tough to back a big home dog, but UCLA is overmatched against a Top 10 team in Oregon.

#19 Illinois (4-0) at #9 Penn State (3-0)

Betting Line: Penn State -17.5, Total 48 o/u
Pick: Illinois +17.5
This Big Ten matchup features a potential defensive showdown. Illinois allows 12.5 ppg and is tied at #15 in scoring defense, while Penn State’s offense averages 41.3 ppg.
Illinois QB Luke Altmyer threw 10 TDs already, including four in an upset victory at Nebraska last week. Penn State’s secondary is currently thin, so Illinois has a chance for a backdoor cover.

#15 Louisville (3-0) @ #16 Notre Dame (3-1)

Betting Line: Notre Dame -6.5, Total 45 o/u
Pick: Notre Dame -6.5
Two elite defenses square off. Notre Dame, ranked #10 in defense, allows only 9.8 ppg. Louisville’s defense limits opponents to 11.0 ppg, and their offense generates 46.3 ppg.
Notre Dame was upset earlier this season but has looked sharp since, making this a crucial matchup against Louisville.

North Carolina (3-1) @ Duke (4-0)

Betting Line: Duke -2.5, Total 55.5 o/u
Pick: North Carolina +2.5
The fierce rivalry between Duke and North Carolina extends to football. UNC’s defense has struggled, but they aim to rebound after a tough loss last week. Duke’s defense allows 15.3 ppg but has faced less challenging offenses.

Colorado (2-2) at UCF (3-0)

Betting Line: UCF -15.5, Total 63.5 o/u
Pick: Colorado +15.5
UCF is 3-0 ATS, and Colorado is 2-2 ATS but has covered their last two games. QB Shedeur Sanders is unafraid to throw deep and pad stats, giving Colorado a chance for a backdoor cover.