Two NFC West teams square off on Thursday Night Football in a vital divisional game with the Seattle Seahawks (3-2) hosting the San Francisco 49ers (2-3). We crunched the numbers to find the best TNF player props from NFL betting sites involving Brock Purdy, Geno Smith, DK Metcalf, Deebo Samuel, Jordan Mason, Kenneth Walker, and Brandon Aiyuk.
After starting the season 3-0, the Seahawks lost two games in a row, including a disappointing upset against the New York Giants in Week 5. The 49ers went to the Super Bowl last year, but they’re 2-3 due to a slew of injuries to key starters including Christian McCaffery.
The Seahawks are +3.5 home underdogs. The total is 47.5 over/under in a game featuring two of the top four passers in the NFL.
Best TNF Player Props: Touchdowns
The Seahawks average 24.4 ppg or #11 overall, yet they’re ranked #5 in offensive DVOA. The 49ers average 25.2 points per game. They’re ranked #10 in both scoring and offensive DVOA.
On defense, the Seahawks allow 22.8 ppg and are ranked #12 in defensive DVOA. The 49ers allow 21.2 ppg and are ranked #6 in defensive DVOA.
Jordan Mason leads the 49ers with three rushing touchdowns. He’s done a solid job filling in for McCaffrey at running back, but he’s a traditional rusher and not as adept as a receiving back.
Jauan Jennings is the only wide receiver to score a touchdown for the 49ers this season, and he scored all three in the same game. Tight end George Kittle also tallied three touchdown receptions in just four games.
Wide receivers Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk are due to score their first touchdowns of the season. They’re both +140 odds to score an anytime touchdown, which is one of our best TNF prop bets.
| PLAYER | FIRST TD | ANYTIME TD | 2+ TDs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | +400 | -190 | +290 |
| Kenneth Walker III | +550 | -135 | +450 |
| Brandon Aiyuk | +850 | +140 | +1000 |
| Deebo Samuel | +850 | +140 | +950 |
| George Kittle | +900 | +125 | +950 |
| DK Metcalf | +1100 | +160 | +1200 |
| Jauan Jennings | +1100 | +195 | +1700 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njiba | +1300 | +205 | +1700 |
| Tyler Lockett | +1500 | +230 | +2000 |
The Seahawks scored six rushing touchdowns through five games. Kenneth Walker has four, Zach Charbonnet scored three, and quarterback Geno Smith rushed for one touchdown. The Seahawks give their running backs more opportunities to score in the red zone, which is why we like Walker to score the first touchdown at +550 odds.
Smith threw only five touchdown passes this season, and only three were to wide receivers, even though the Seahawks have one of the best WR trios in the NFL with DK Metcalf (2), Jaxon Smith-Njiba (1), and Tyler Lockett (0).
49ers vs Seahawks TNF Prop Bets: Passing
The Seahawks allow 128 passing yards per game and are ranked #7 overall, and they face the fourth-best passing team in the league. With 1,574 passing yards, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy averages 274.8 yards per game, but his total on TNF is 251.5 yards.
If you’re feeling frisky, Purdy is +290 odds to throw three or more touchdowns at many US betting apps.
| PLAYER | PASSING PROP | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 254.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Geno Smith | 1.5 TD O/U | -130 | +100 |
| Brock Purdy | 251.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Brock Purdy | 1.5 TD O/U | -110 | -120 |
The 49ers are ranked #12 overall in passing defense. They allow 197 passing yards per game and will have a tough matchup against Geno Smith, who leads the NFL with 1,466 passing yards.
Smith averages 293.2 yards per game, and we like him to pass for over 254.5 yards. He’s also +320 odds to exceed 300+ yards, and we’re eyeing that prop bet too. Smith unleashed two games this season with at least 327 passing yards.
Smith is -115 odds to toss two or more touchdowns. He’s also +120 to have a flawless game with no interceptions.
49ers vs Seahawks Prop Bets: TNF Rushing Props
The Seahawks are aware their biggest weakness is their rushing defense, which is ranked #20 and allows 128 rushing yards per game. Head coach Mike Macdonald acknowledged his team needs to do a much better job slowing down Mason.
Even without McCaffrey, the 49ers run the ball effectively with their backup. Credit their offensive line and a great scheme by head coach Kyle Shanahan. Mason, an undrafted running back out of Georgia Tech, leads the NFL with 105 carries and he’s second with 536 rushing yards. Mason averages 107 yards per game.
In the three games that Mason rushed over 100 yards, he also scored a touchdown. His lowest rushing output was in Week 3 with 77 yards on 19 carries. He scampered for 89 yards in Week 5 on 14 carries.
| PLAYER | RUSHING PROP | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Mason | 78.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Kenneth Walker | 54.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
The Seahawks generate 105.4 rushing yards per game, which is ranked an unimpressive #21 overall. The 49ers have a Top 10 rushing defense that is ranked #9 overall.
Walker returned from an oblique injury in Week 4 with a bang. He rushed 12 times for 80 yards and three touchdowns against the Detroit Lions. He also added four receptions for 36 yards. Walker struggled in Week 5 when the Giants held him to only 19 rushing yards. He was more effective in the passing game with seven receptions for 57 yards.
Walker averages 67.3 rushing yards per game in four starts this season. If you dismiss Week 5’s subpar effort, he averages 91.5 rushing yards per game. Even though the 49ers have a solid run defense, we still like Walker to exceed 54.5 rushing yards.
49ers vs Seahawks Prop Bets: Receiving
Purdy does a good job spreading the wealth around, which he’s able to do because the 49ers have multiple weapons.
Brandon Aiyuk leads the 49ers with 27 targets from Purdy, but he’s only third on the team in receptions (21), and second in yards (314). In the first four weeks of the season, Aiyuk averaged only 41.8 yards per game. After his best game of the season in Week 5 with eight catches for 147 yards, Aiyuk now averages 62.8 yards per game.
Deebo Samuel missed Week 3 with a calf injury, and he’s only averaging 58.3 yards per game. He tallied 233 receiving yards this season, but almost half of that occurred in Week 2 with 110 yards. If you ignore Week 2’s high point, Samuel averages 41 yards per game.
Samuel caught just one pass for 11 yards in Week 5’s loss against the Cardinals. He has yet to find the endzone this season, and he’s due for a big game, especially after a stinker in Week 5. We’re eyeing Samuel to catch for more than 53.5 yards as one of our best TNF prop bets from legal US sportsbooks.
| PLAYER | RECEIVING PROP | OVER | UNDER |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Aiyuk | 66.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| DK Metcalf | 62.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Deebo Samuel | 53.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba | 49.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
| George Kittle | 48.5 Yards O/U | -115 | -115 |
Smith-Njigba leads the Seahawks with 29 receptions, but he only has 257 yards compared to Metcalf’s 28 catches and 421 yards. Even though Tyler Lockett was considered WR #2 on the depth chart at the start of the season, he only has 22 receptions on 32 targets.
Metcalf averages 84.5 yards per game. He posted three consecutive games with at least 100+ yards before a modest performance in Week 5 with only four catches for 44 yards and zero touchdowns.
Smith-Njigba is second on the team with 40 targets and he averages 51.4 yards per game. He tallied over 45% of his season’s yardage in one game with 12 receptions for 117 yards in Week 2’s overtime victory against the Patriots. In his other four games, Smith-Njigba averages 40 yards per game.
If you think this will be a big week for Smith-Njigba, then fade Metcalf. Or, vice versa.
